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Retirement calculator: will your money last?

Nine numbers, all prefilled with sensible averages — your verdict is already below. A 1,000-path Monte Carlo simulation runs instantly on your device. No account, no email, no data sent anywhere.

Your plan

All prefilled
typical 65+ household: $5,100/mo (BLS 2024)
60 / 40
ALL BONDSALL STOCKS
$

Your benefit at full retirement age from ssa.gov — we adjust it for the claim age you pick below. Don't enter an age-62 or age-70 figure here, or it would be adjusted twice.

Spending declines with age
Real-world pattern — glides real spending down ~1.3%/yr from 70, settling at 80% by 85.
Guyton-style guardrails
This RetireOdds rule cuts spending 10% when your withdrawal rate runs high and raises it 10% after a good year when it's low. It is not a claim of canonical Guyton-Klinger behavior. Higher odds can come at the cost of real spending cuts, reported below.
Late-life health cost shock
Optional stress test: after an age you pick, each year independently carries a chance of one large cost, so it can happen in more than one year. The odds and amount below are your assumption to set, not a researched estimate.
—success
Your verdict

—

—

Safe monthly spend
—/mo

At a 90% success target — the highest pre-tax spending that succeeds in 9 of 10 simulated futures.

Where your balance could land

Today's dollars · to age 95
Age —
Percentile ribbonsMedian (P50)Positive market year

Same plan, somewhere cheaper

Your same numbers, adjusted for cost of living in six popular expat hubs.

Ratios are the app's ExpatFIRE couple baselines for popular hubs. This quick view ignores visas, local taxes and healthcare — model taxes & visas in the full app →

Your quick result does not include your actual account types, taxes, RMDs, Roth strategy, ACA, Medicare, ongoing healthcare costs, or real portfolio.

Join the invite-only beta free for one year, with eight withdrawal strategies and three simulation engines.

Invite-only BetaNo card required

What this calculator does

Most retirement calculators grow your savings at one average return and draw a single smooth line. Real markets don't move in a straight line, and the order of good and bad years matters enormously once you're withdrawing. This tool plays your plan through 1,000 simulated return paths — independent random annual draws calibrated to your allocation, not replays of actual history — and counts how often you make it. The result is a simulated success rate under these assumptions, not a forecast or a promise.

The assumptions

All figures are in today's (inflation-adjusted) dollars:

  • Returns follow your allocation. Your stocks % sets the expected real return and volatility — the same blend table the full app uses (60/40 ≈ 5.2% real, 12.7% volatility).
  • Contributions are added every year through your retirement age; spending begins the year after and stays constant in real terms by default (unless you turn on the age-decline pattern, which glides real spending down gradually from 70 to 80% by 85, or the guardrails rule, which cuts or raises it 10% at a time based on your withdrawal rate).
  • Social Security: enter your benefit at full retirement age; we adjust it for your claim age with the same SSA factors as the full app. If you claim before your FRA while still working, no benefit is credited for those working years — SSA's earnings test withholds it.
  • Success means you never run out of money before your plan-to age. At 1,000 paths, treat the percentage as ±2–3 points of sampling wiggle, not decimal-precise.
  • Late-life health shock (optional, off by default): the start age, annual probability, and cost are numbers YOU choose to stress-test with — not a researched or actuarial estimate of health-cost risk. Each qualifying year is an independent draw, so the cost can occur more than once. Real long-term-care risk, which varies hugely by health, family history, and state, is not modeled here.
  • Not modeled: taxes (results are pre-tax dollars) and investment fees. Fees matter — a 0.5%/yr fee is roughly a 0.5% lower real return; subtract yours mentally or use a lower stocks % as a crude proxy. Ongoing healthcare premiums aren't modeled; the optional health-shock toggle above adds one crude recurring-risk assumption, not a healthcare cost model. The full app models taxes, account types, RMDs, ACA and Medicare.

What a "good" number looks like

  • 90%+ — a robust plan. Most planners treat this as the target.
  • 75–90% — solid, but worth stress-testing. Small changes to spending or retirement age move the needle.
  • Below 75% — consider saving more, spending less, working a little longer, or a more flexible withdrawal approach.

Not financial advice. This is an educational estimate based on the assumptions above, which you can't fully change in this quick version. It is not investment, tax, or legal advice. For decisions specific to your situation, consult a qualified professional. The exact math is documented on the methodology page.