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RetireOdds is a personal wealth and retirement planning app. It brings your net worth, portfolio, spending, taxes, healthcare costs, liabilities, and illiquid assets into one privacy-first system — then runs a Monte Carlo simulation across 1,000 randomized market paths so you can see your real probability of a successful retirement.

RetireOdds is file-based and user-controlled: it never connects to a bank or brokerage. You upload CSVs that you export yourself, and every change instantly recalculates your chance of success.

No bank linking required. To get the most out of RetireOdds:

• Know your approximate annual income and monthly spending
• Know your current age, target retirement age, and expected life expectancy
• Optionally, have a brokerage CSV from Fidelity, Schwab, Vanguard, or E*Trade for accurate portfolio tracking

Yes. RetireOdds never connects to your bank or brokerage and never asks for OAuth or bank credentials — you upload CSVs you export yourself. Your data is stored privately.

You can export or delete your data at any time from Settings & Security.

Onboarding collects the essential inputs needed to build your first Ledger:

• Household and horizon — ages, residence, retirement timing, and planning horizon
• Income and spending — annual employment income and a monthly spending baseline
• Portfolio — taxable, tax-deferred, and Roth opening balances
• Benefits and destination — Social Security timing and expected retirement country

Yes. Open your Profile at any time. It shows what is complete, what needs review, and links directly to specialist details in Portfolio, Tax Planning, Healthcare, and Life Events.

Open your Profile. You can jump directly to Household, Income, Spending, Portfolio, Taxes, Healthcare, Assets, or Life Events.

Key figures like your net worth and chance of success, plus a net-worth projection fan chart showing the median (P50) path and the P10–P90 band — all in today's dollars (inflation-adjusted).

The Monte Carlo engine uses a fixed seed for repeatability: identical inputs give identical results. The percentage is still a sampling estimate rather than a guarantee, not a precise forecast.

Open Where this plan fails on Chance of Success. It counts the paths that could not fund every modeled obligation, groups the age of the first shortfall, and shows selected actual failing trials. The examples use the same run as the headline percentage; they are not separate forecasts or a claim about why the failure happened.

A read-only, deterministic record of how your plan becomes year-by-year numbers — it shows how much your portfolio needs to provide each year.

No. It formats the simulation engine's output; it doesn't itself calculate taxes, balances, or withdrawals. Treat it as the single source of truth behind the other views.

A temporary, one-change-at-a-time preview of your whole Ledger. Pick a lever, enter a value, and the Ledger recalculates as a scenario — every affected cell, not just a single number.

You can test:

• Withdrawal strategy — constant dollar, 4% of portfolio, dynamic safe withdrawal, or Guyton guardrails
• Modeled country — reprice cost of living, tax, inflation, and currency for a different country (and US state)
• Lower expenses — a smaller monthly spending budget
• Big one-time expense — one extra cost in a chosen plan year
• Roth conversion — one additional conversion at a chosen age
• Change retirement year — an earlier or later retirement age
• Change real growth — a different portfolio return after inflation

Only one lever applies at a time — the server rejects a request that tries to combine two. Want to change several things together, or save it as a real plan? Use Custom comparison at the bottom of the what-if menu, which opens the full Compare workspace.

While a preview is open, each changed Ledger cell shows the scenario value with the baseline value struck through beneath it, plus an up-or-down dollar change. The color treatment identifies the change as favorable, unfavorable, or neutral for that row.

Click any cell to open its trace. During a what-if, the trace adds a "What changed" panel — baseline result, scenario result, and the dollar change — with the baseline's own calculation available to expand alongside the scenario's, so you can see exactly which numbers in the equation moved.

If the lever you tested affects market-path outcomes (like withdrawal strategy), a market-path comparison section shows plan success, ending balance range, after-tax wealth, and median spending side by side for baseline vs. what-if.

It opens the trace for your very first plan year's closing portfolio total — how income, spending, taxes, and withdrawals combine to reach that balance. This always explains your saved, canonical plan, never a what-if preview: opening it automatically closes any active what-if and reads from the saved Ledger.

When your Ledger has setup items still to complete, an optional trail offers four short steps: Understand (see how your opening year works — the same canonical trace above), Review (check the assumptions behind your plan), Improve (jump to your next pending setup item), and Test (open the what-if preview to try a different plan choice). All four are optional shortcuts to features already on the page.

A sources-to-uses diagram for a single plan year: non-portfolio cash and portfolio funding as sources, spending and Medicare IRMAA as uses, with any unfunded amount called out separately rather than folded into the total. Every number is a canonical Ledger cell — the diagram doesn't recalculate anything, it just visualizes cells you can also see (and trace) in the table.

This is different from the Cash Flow page's Sankey diagram, which is a separate, illustrative current-year estimate rather than a view of the plan projection.

The five tabs cover Life events, Milestones, Spending flex, Savings order, and Transfers. You can combine several choices in one scenario, give it a recognizable name, and compare the result with your saved plan on the same seeded market paths.

No. What If is an independent viewpoint: its events and policies affect that scenario's simulations only. Save draft stores the editable scenario, and Save and compare freezes a comparison; neither applies a transaction or rewrites your plan.

To change the Ledger, record the real financial decision in its source: add or update a liability, healthcare cost, expense, portfolio account, or applied Year-End Move.

RetireOdds needs a confirmed base plan before it can make an honest side-by-side comparison. You may continue building and saving the What If draft while setup is incomplete. Once the base plan is ready, Save and compare runs both viewpoints against shared market paths.

Savings order routes available cash through real account and liability categories. Transfers need two distinct real accounts so RetireOdds can identify the source, destination, and tax-bucket treatment. Add the missing books in Portfolio or Liabilities, then return to the saved draft.

Go to Portfolio and click + Add account. Give the account a name (e.g. "Fidelity 401k"), choose a type (Taxable, Traditional IRA, Roth IRA, 401k, HSA, Other), and optionally enter a cash balance. The account appears immediately in the sidebar and dashboard totals.

RetireOdds auto-detects and imports holdings from:

• Fidelity — Portfolio Positions export
• Schwab — Positions export
• Vanguard — Holdings export
• E*Trade — Portfolio download

To export from your brokerage: log in → Accounts → Positions → Download/Export CSV. Then drag the file onto the Import button in RetireOdds's Portfolio page.

Click Refresh prices on the Portfolio page to pull the latest market quotes for all your holdings. Prices are fetched from a free market data feed. If a ticker isn't found, the last known price is kept.

Live prices are not automatic — click the button whenever you want to update them.

Not directly from the UI yet — the fastest path is a CSV import. As a workaround, you can create a one-row CSV:

Symbol,Quantity,Last Price
AAPL,10,189.50

Save it as positions.csv and import it. RetireOdds will auto-detect the format.

The donut shows your portfolio split across Stocks, Bonds, and Cash.

Yes — click Export CSV on the Portfolio page to download a CSV of your current positions.

The Performance card on the Portfolio page shows your time-weighted return (TWR) and money-weighted return (XIRR) — consolidated across all accounts and per account — plus your recorded contributions, withdrawals, dividends & interest, fees, realized and unrealized gains, a benchmark comparison, and a cost-basis quality indicator.

It starts working once an account has two dated statement snapshots on file. Each statement you import creates a dated checkpoint; returns are measured between checkpoints.

Once a month, export a positions CSV from each broker (Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, E*Trade, and Interactive Brokers formats are recognized automatically) and click Import CSV / XLSX on the Portfolio page.

• Set the statement date on the confirm step — the date printed on the statement, not the day you upload it.
• Review what changed: positions added, updated, and removed are listed before anything is saved.
• Answer the follow-up questions: did you add or withdraw money, did a disappeared position get sold (proceeds, basis, holding period), and is any cost basis missing?

Every question is skippable. A period whose flows you skip is assumed to have zero contributions and withdrawals — the card discloses this with an amber row you can click any time to fill in the real numbers.

Time-weighted return removes the effect of your deposits and withdrawals — it measures how your investments performed, and is the right number to compare against a benchmark.

Money-weighted return (XIRR) includes the timing and size of your cash flows — it measures how your dollars actually grew, annualized. Adding money right before a rally lifts XIRR but not TWR.

Both are nominal and pre-tax, and only as complete as the checkpoints and flows you've recorded — open “How these numbers work” on the card for the full method notes.

Return windows trail your last statement date (the card's “data through” date), and a window is only reported when a checkpoint exists within about a month of the window's start. If you've only just started importing, or you skipped some months, the shorter windows stay blank rather than showing a number computed over the wrong period.

The card compares your time-weighted return against SPY and AGG over the same months your data covers, using monthly adjusted close prices — an approximation of total return with dividends reinvested, not an exact total-return index.

Not by import — a statement older than an account's current data is rejected, because imports replace that account's live holdings and an old statement would overwrite today's portfolio.

To record history, add a manual performance checkpoint (a dated account value plus optional flows) — it feeds the return math without touching your holdings. A dedicated historical-statement workflow is planned.

Private fund / LP, Real estate, Private business, Private credit, Collectible, and Other. The current phase supports USD, taxable/manual treatment only.

Illiquid NAV is your net equity after debt — it's part of your total wealth but cannot fund spending. For modeled ending wealth, recorded unfunded commitments are deducted where applicable. Only explicit distributions or sales become spendable. RetireOdds doesn't infer any appreciation, exit, or tax treatment for these holdings.

Model a confirmed, fully vested U.S. account-balance NQDC plan. Undistributed balances stay gross, can't fund spending, and are excluded from modeled ending wealth. Addressable at /deferred-comp.

Go to Expenses and use the quick-add row at the top. Fill in:

• Date — defaults to today
• Payee — who you paid
• Category — Rent, Groceries, Dining, etc.
• Currency — the currency the expense was in
• Amount

RetireOdds imports expense CSVs from Quicken, Simplifi, or a generic file with Date, Payee, Amount, and Category columns.

Each row is stored in its entry currency. Totals convert to your base currency (set in Settings & Security) at live rates that refresh roughly 4× per day.

Yes. In Settings & Security, toggle "Use my tracked expenses for spending" to feed your averaged monthly spend into the simulation. Sparse months — 30% or less of the recent 6-month average — are skipped automatically.

One-off purchases: a large, non-recurring expense can distort that average. Click Mark on a transaction (or tick One-off when adding one) to exclude it from the average.

True net worth = total portfolio value (cash + holdings) + illiquid NAV − total liabilities, with a history over time.

Some views show investable / spendable assets only (excluding illiquid NAV and debt), because the simulation models the spendable portfolio separately. Figures are labeled clearly in context.

History plots only your recorded net-worth snapshots — it never fabricates a past value. With fewer than two snapshots it shows a flat line at today's value rather than an invented history. Older ("legacy") snapshots that predate the taxable/tax-deferred/Roth split are shown as a single unsplit "Recorded total" rather than a guessed breakdown.

Balance is a flow diagram from your accounts and holdings into net worth and liabilities. If liabilities exceed assets, the uncovered portion is shown as a separate, visually distinct "Uncovered debt" band rather than folded into the regular liabilities flow.

Allocation classifies your holdings using the exact same classifier as the Balance sheet card elsewhere on this page, so the two can never disagree.

Use the Table toggle on any mode to switch to an accessible data table with the same numbers. In History mode, the chart also supports keyboard selection — arrow keys move between snapshots, Home/End jump to the first or last.

RetireOdds supports: Credit Card, Auto Loan, College Loan, Medical Debt, Mortgage, and Other — each with a balance, APR, and monthly payment.

These reduce your net worth.

Recurring debt payments aren't automatically deducted from the simulation's spending — include them in your monthly spending figure for the most accurate simulation.

A Sankey diagram that traces your income through taxes, spending, and savings. Each flow is proportional to the dollar amount.

Switch between This year and Retirement (withdrawal-based) using the toggle at the top.

It changes how granular the categories in the diagram are — Simple groups flows broadly, Detail breaks them out further.

A monthly checklist for the household's liquid books. Confirm account balances and liabilities, review recorded cash flow against the active spending source, then close the month to create an immutable reconciled record. Corrections are stored as a new close version, never as a silent rewrite.

Your frozen plan is a snapshot of your Ledger projection captured with the first compatible completed Monthly Close. It stays fixed after that point — even if you later change your saved plan's assumptions, the frozen line keeps showing what that baseline close originally projected, so you have a stable yardstick to track actuals against over time. If a projection cannot be captured with an earlier close, that close remains in your history as an actual-only record and the stable comparison begins with the next compatible close.

The comparison covers your liquid portfolio balance only (not liabilities, illiquid assets, or gross deferred compensation), shown in real, inflation-adjusted dollars using the inflation rate that was in effect when the plan was frozen. Where available, a frozen simulation P10–P90 band shows whether your actual balance is tracking below, within, or above the projected range — this is a positional read, not a success or failure verdict.

Recorded cash flow versus your active spending plan is a separate comparison lower on the page — that one tracks spending, not portfolio balance.

Every plan is simulated on identical market histories, so differences in the table reflect your choices, not luck.

Yes — share or copy a summary of the comparison.

An "Annual wealth paths" chart plots each saved plan's median (P50) portfolio balance by age, with a shaded P10–P90 band around your baseline plan. Drag the age slider to read each plan's median wealth — and its dollar difference from baseline — at a chosen age.

Every plan compared here is run against the same seeded sequence of simulated market returns, so differences between the lines reflect the assumptions you changed, not a lucky or unlucky random draw. A plan whose saved projection doesn't share that seed (for example, an older run) is left out of the overlay rather than plotted alongside the others.

Tax Planning estimates federal and state income tax from your filing status and state, using current federal brackets and the standard deduction.

It is a ballpark estimate — it does not account for itemized deductions, capital-gains rates, payroll taxes, credits, or the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Use it to understand your bracket, not to file.

Your marginal rate is the tax rate on your last dollar of income — the bracket you're currently in. Your effective rate is your actual total tax divided by gross income, which is always lower.

Click a series name to hide or show it — hidden series drop out of both the chart and the CSV export. Switch between chart and table with the toggle above the chart; the Left/Right arrow keys (and Home/End) step through years once the chart has focus. Export CSV downloads exactly the years and series currently visible, not the full dataset behind a hidden series.

Monte Carlo runs your plan across randomized market paths. Chance of success is the share of paths where your money lasts to your life expectancy.

• P10 — the "bad luck" scenario.
• P50 — the median: your baseline.
• P90 — the "good luck" scenario.

From Timing & Strategy at /chance/advanced you can choose:

• Monte Carlo — random returns from your expected return and volatility.
• Historical backtest — every US market start year from 1928–2023, in sequence.
• Bootstrap — resampled blocks of real history.

Seven strategies across three goals:

• Basic — Constant Dollar, Percent of Portfolio
• Maximize Spend — Dynamic SWR
• Maximize Longevity — Guyton-Klinger, 95% Rule, Yield-anchored, Sensible Withdrawals, Vanguard Dynamic Spending

Spend less, retire later, save more, or use a flexible withdrawal strategy. Tweak the Assumptions panel to re-run instantly.

The Scenario library is a fixed set of standardized cases (not your personal plan) that let you see the simulation engine "from the inside." The simulation's Historical mode likewise replays every complete start-year window from 1928 onward, in order — each trial is a real, unbroken sequence of historical market returns, never a spliced or wrapped-around mix of unrelated eras.

When a randomized (non-historical) trial fails, RetireOdds can point you to its closest historical analog — the past start-year whose early-retirement return pattern most closely resembles that failing trial. This is a return-pattern reference only: it identifies which historical period looked similar, not a claim that the failure was caused by, or a re-run of, that year's actual events.

The same standardized historical-case links are available from the RetireOdds iOS app's Chance screen. The native simulator runs a bundled, parity-tested build of the same engine for matching inputs.

A home purchase, an inheritance or windfall, a large planned expense — one-time or recurring — at a future age. They flow into the simulation at the year they occur.

Presets like Pension, Part-time work, Career-break costs, College expense, and Inheritance only prefill the standard event form's label, type, and timing — they never submit anything on their own and never suggest an amount. You always type your own dollar figure.

The Career-break costs preset adds an incremental annual expense for the years you specify; it does not reduce or remove any modeled income. If a career break also lowers your earnings, reflect that separately in your income assumptions.

KPIs for lifetime tax saved, RMD reduction, and total converted, plus a traditional-vs-Roth breakdown.

Click a series name to hide or show it — hidden series drop out of both the chart and the CSV export. Switch between chart and table with the toggle above the chart; the Left/Right arrow keys (and Home/End) step through years once the chart has focus. Export CSV downloads exactly what's currently visible.

Roth planning uses the same healthcare assumptions as your Ledger. It funds lifestyle spending and healthcare separately, including modeled ACA or Medicare premiums and out-of-pocket healthcare.

Conversions can change healthcare costs by raising MAGI. RetireOdds applies ACA credit reconciliation in the following year and Medicare IRMAA using the two-year income lookback. Review the separated amounts in Profile > Spending when your current healthcare costs change.

Medicare Part B/D premiums and income-based IRMAA surcharges, plus ACA marketplace premiums and subsidies for early retirement before 65. These feed your spending and tax picture.

Click a series name to hide or show it — hidden series drop out of both the chart and the CSV export. Switch between chart and table with the toggle above the chart; the Left/Right arrow keys (and Home/End) step through years once the chart has focus. Export CSV downloads exactly what's currently visible.

A full assumptions disclosure plus data-quality warnings — everything the numbers depend on, in one place, as a printable report.

Yes. The on-screen preview and the printed (or saved-as-PDF) report are the same content — there's no separate print-only version with different numbers, only print-specific page layout.

Yes — toggle sections like Executive summary, Assumptions, Assets and liabilities, Spending, Tax, Healthcare, Year-End Moves, Warnings, and Known limitations on or off before printing. One section — Disclosure, covering data-quality warnings, known limitations, and the tax-constant provenance — is always included and can't be turned off.

Beyond print/PDF, the Plan Report offers a Markdown download ("Export for Claude") with your full plan for pasting into an AI assistant for deeper analysis, plus separate Scenarios JSON, Expenses CSV, and Holdings CSV downloads.

At the plan horizon, modeled ending wealth includes the liquid after-tax balance plus modeled illiquid NAV net of unfunded commitments where applicable. It excludes heirs' or beneficiaries' taxation, estate or transfer taxes, legal title, and transaction costs.

It's a group in the Plan Report (and the printable report and Claude export) showing five facts at a glance: your household scope, who is included in the current model, the survivor spending policy, how your accounts are labeled by planning owner, and whether the modeled fields are complete.

It describes only what's saved in RetireOdds — it never infers a spouse from your filing status, account names, or balances, and it doesn't verify legal titles, beneficiaries, or estate documents.

A spouse can be on file without being modeled. Household (survivor) modeling runs only when all three are true: a spouse with a current age is saved in Profile, household modeling is switched on in Settings, and your filing status is married. Until then, projections cover the primary person only — the summary tells you which state you're in.

When household modeling is active, spending drops to a set percentage (default 75%) after the first modeled death, and the plan horizon extends to the surviving spouse. The summary shows the active percentage and whether you set it or it's the default.

Each account carries a planning-owner label (primary or spouse) used for tax and survivor modeling — these are planning labels only, not proof of legal title, account access, or transfer instructions.

Saved-data coverage lists exactly which modeled fields are missing — for example a spouse's retirement age or an unlabeled account owner. “Modeled fields present” means the model's inputs are complete; it does not confirm estate or legal continuity readiness.

Choose a destination country (e.g. Thailand) to personalize your plan. If unset, the plan uses your home country.

Completed calculations and saved financial snapshots. Undo is offered only where a reversible change was actually recorded.

• Current age, retirement age, life expectancy
• Income & spending (or "use tracked expenses")
• Expected return, volatility, inflation
• Social Security benefit and claiming age

Account security, billing, referrals, appearance, and privacy controls live in Settings and do not change the financial model.

Sign-in uses passkeys with one-time backup codes — no passwords.

Open Settings → Data & privacy for exports, the privacy policy, and account-deletion controls.

RetireOdds is a comprehensive personal money tracker and retirement planning tool. It helps you organize your financial picture, explore tradeoffs, and test retirement scenarios. It does not provide individualized financial, investment, legal, or tax advice and is not a substitute for a certified financial planner, registered investment adviser, accountant, or tax preparer.

Its models are thoroughly tested against historical and modeled scenarios. That testing checks that the calculations behave as intended; it cannot guarantee future results. Every estimate, projection, simulation, and tax calculation depends on the information and assumptions provided.

Actual outcomes may differ materially as markets, inflation, tax law, healthcare costs, exchange rates, personal circumstances, and other external factors change. No result is a guarantee or a recommendation to take a particular action.

Use RetireOdds to understand possible outcomes and prepare better questions. Consider consulting a qualified professional before making significant financial, investment, legal, or tax decisions.

Your plan updates when its inputs or assumptions change. Results can also move because future returns, inflation, tax rules, healthcare costs, longevity, spending, income, and exchange rates will not follow one fixed path.

Keep account balances, income, expenses, life events, and tax assumptions current. Compare multiple scenarios instead of treating a single projection as a forecast.

On the Portfolio page, click Export CSV for your holdings. On the Expenses page, click Export CSV for your transactions.

No. RetireOdds never connects to a bank or brokerage or asks for OAuth or login credentials — all data enters via CSVs you upload.

Yes, anytime, from Settings & Security.