See Your Retirement Odds — 1,000 Simulated Lifetimes in Seconds
A 1,000-path Monte Carlo simulation, run live on a sample plan — then a scroll into the 105 paths that ran out, matched to the real market years they resemble.
Numbers shown are from a sample plan, for illustration only — not financial advice.
What you'll see
This demo opens on RetireOdds' Chance of Success view for a sample plan: a 46-year-old with a mixed taxable/retirement portfolio, spending $23,000 a month, modeled out to age 119. Clicking Run simulation kicks off 1,000 bootstrap-engine paths built from real 1928–2023 market history, and the probability gauge climbs to 90% while the projection cone below fills in with a P10–P90 band, a scattering of individual sample paths, and one path that runs out of money at age 92.
The camera then scrolls into "Where this plan fails" — the part most retirement tools skip. Of the 1,000 simulated paths, 105 fell short at least once. A histogram breaks down which ages those failures cluster around (mostly 65–89), and three real failed simulations are pulled out and matched to the historical market sequence they most resemble — 1971, 1945, and 1928 — so a shortfall isn't an abstract percentage, it's a specific, inspectable path with a specific first bad year.
The sequence shows how RetireOdds turns "will my money last?" into a number you can interrogate: not just a single percentage, but the P10/P50/P90 outcomes, the age range where trouble starts, and the actual paths behind it.
Chapters
- 0:001,000 retirements, simulated in seconds — the Chance of Success view opens on a sample plan.
- 0:081,000 lifetimes, replayed against real market history.
- 0:18105 paths ran out — see exactly which, and when.
- 0:27Every failure, itemized — when it hits, and how deep.
- 0:34Real failed paths, matched to history: 1971, 1945, 1928.
- 0:44Your odds — with the receipts.
Why it matters
- Uses the same 1,000-path Monte Carlo engine described in our methodology — not a single average-return guess.
- Runs on RetireOdds' bootstrap engine, built from real 1928–2023 market history, so bad sequences cluster the way they actually have.
- Shows P10/P50/P90 outcomes and a funded-ratio number, not just one percentage — so you can see the range, not just the median.
- Surfaces the actual failing paths and the ages they fail at, so a low probability isn't just a scary number — it's a specific, inspectable scenario.
FAQ
What counts as a “failed” path in the simulation?
A path fails if it leaves any modeled obligation — spending, taxes, healthcare — unfunded in any year, including the very last one. RetireOdds treats a shortfall at any age as a failure, not just running out of money by a fixed end date.
Why match failed paths to historical years like 1971 or 1945?
Each simulated path is built from a random or bootstrapped sequence of market returns. Matching a failed path's early years to the closest historical sequence turns an abstract percentage into a concrete, inspectable scenario.
Is 90% a good chance of success?
Most planners treat 90%+ as a robust plan and below 75% as a signal to adjust. Chasing 100% usually means over-saving; the goal is a healthy number paired with the flexibility to trim spending if a bad sequence shows up.