Retiring early, across borders — for real.
We're the Kamat family — two parents, two kids, and a move from the US to Thailand, Singapore and Spain. We built RetireOdds to answer our own questions about retiring early in multiple currencies. These are those questions, worked all the way through.
Retirement Odds
Can You Actually Retire at 55?
We ran our own numbers at 46 and asked the only question that matters: what are the real odds our mo…
Is the 4% Rule Still Safe in 2026?
The 4% rule is a rule of thumb, not a guarantee. Here's what a 1,000-path simulation says about spen…
$1 Million Sounds Like a Lot. Is It Enough?
A seven-figure balance feels like the finish line. Whether it funds your life is a different questio…
Will You Outlive Your Money?
The question behind every retirement plan, answered as a straight verdict instead of a vibe.…
Retire Now vs. Work Three More Years
Three extra years of work can swing your odds more than you'd think. We put both plans side by side.…
How Much Can You Spend Without Going Broke?
Forget the balance — the number that matters is the safe annual spend your plan can actually support…
Your Portfolio Is 100% Stocks. Here Are Your Odds.
More equities means more growth and more white-knuckle years. Here's how allocation moves the odds.…
What 'Good Enough' Odds Actually Look Like
100% success is a trap. Here's the confidence level we actually plan around — and why.…
Taxes
The Tax Bomb Hiding in Your 401(k)
At 73 the IRS forces withdrawals whether you need them or not. Here's how we're defusing ours early.…
Which Account Do You Spend First?
Taxable, tax-deferred, Roth — the order you withdraw in can save six figures over a retirement.…
How RMDs Can Push You Into a Higher Bracket
Required distributions can stack on top of Social Security and quietly raise your tax rate for decad…
Roth Conversions: The 10-Year Window Nobody Uses
The years between retiring and RMDs are a tax gift. Here's how to build the ladder that uses them.…
Fill the 12% Bracket on Purpose
Empty low-bracket space is a missed opportunity. We convert just enough each year to fill it.…
Why Your 'Tax-Free' Withdrawal Isn't
To spend a dollar from a pre-tax account you often have to withdraw more than a dollar. Here's the g…
How to Pay $0 Federal Tax in Retirement (Legally)
With the right bucket order and the standard deduction, a surprising amount of retirement income is …
The Widow's Tax Trap
When one spouse passes, the survivor often jumps to single brackets on similar income. Plan for it n…
Expat & Currency
Retiring Abroad on a US Portfolio
We've lived in Thailand, Singapore and Spain. Here's how a US portfolio actually funds a life overse…
Does a Weak Dollar Ruin Your Overseas Plan?
When you earn in dollars but spend in baht or euros, the exchange rate becomes a core retirement ris…
Geo-Arbitrage: Cut Expenses, Retire Years Earlier
Lowering your cost of living abroad can shrink your retirement number — and pull your date years clo…
Healthcare Abroad vs. Medicare at Home
Private cover overseas vs. waiting for Medicare — how we compare the true cost across countries.…
Snowbird Math: Half the Year Abroad
Six months in the US, six months abroad — how a blended cost of living changes the spending plan.…
Can Social Security Follow You Overseas?
Yes, mostly — but with rules. How we model Social Security as expats living outside the US.…
Spending
The $6k/Year Cut That Adds 15% to Your Odds
In retirement, what you spend moves the needle more than what you earn. We measured exactly how much…
Where Does Your Money Actually Go?
Across three countries and multiple currencies, we couldn't see our real spending — so we built a wa…
The Go-Go, Slow-Go, No-Go Spending Curve
Spending isn't flat in retirement. Modeling the three phases makes the plan far more realistic.…
Should You Pay Off the Mortgage Before Retiring?
A paid-off house lowers your spending floor — but the cash had other jobs. We ran it both ways.…
Inflation Isn't One Number for Everyone
Your personal inflation depends on what you buy and where you live. We plan in today's dollars, per …
One Big Trip a Year — Can You Afford It?
Recurring splurges are easy to underestimate. Here's how a yearly trip shows up in a 30-year plan.…
College
College AND Retirement: Can You Do Both?
With kids 14 and 11, tuition and our retirement date collide. Here's how we plan for both at once.…
The $300k Tuition Bill vs. Your Nest Egg
Two kids through college is a second mortgage. We put the bill on the same timeline as retirement.…
529 vs. Retiring on Time
Every dollar into a 529 is a dollar not funding your own retirement. How we balance the two goals.…
How Much Does Helping the Kids Delay Retirement?
Generosity has a date attached. We quantified how much paying for college pushes our retirement back…
Two Kids, Four Years Apart: The Funding Gap
Overlapping college years create a cash-flow crunch. Here's how we're smoothing ours.…
Windfalls
Your IPO Just Hit. Now What?
A liquidity event changes everything — and nothing, until you run it through the plan. Here's our ch…
A Big Payout: Retire Now or Keep Going?
A seven-figure payout can move your retirement date to today. Whether it should is a simulation, not…
RSUs Vesting: How Much Is 'Enough' to Walk?
Equity comp turns into your number one paycheck — and one day, your exit. How we find the 'enough' l…
Don't Blow the Windfall: The Tax on the Sale
The headline number isn't what you keep. Capital-gains tax on a big sale can take a quarter of it.…
Inheritance: Lump Sum vs. Lifetime Income
An inheritance is a one-shot. How we model turning a lump sum into decades of reliable spending.…
Sold the Business. Will It Last 40 Years?
After a lifetime building one asset, the question flips: can the proceeds outlast a long retirement?…
Social Security & Healthcare
Claim Social Security at 62, 67, or 70?
The biggest free decision in retirement. Claiming later can grow the check ~77% — we compared all th…
The 8 Years Before Medicare Nobody Plans For
Retire before 65 and you bridge to Medicare on your own dime. Here's what that bridge really costs.…
IRMAA: The Medicare Surcharge That Ambushes High Earners
A single dollar over a threshold can raise your Medicare premiums for a whole year. We watch the cli…
How Roth Conversions Lower Your Medicare Premium
Converting early can shrink later RMDs — and the income that drives IRMAA surcharges. Two birds.…
Spousal Benefits: The Strategy Couples Miss
For couples, claiming is a two-person optimization. The wrong order leaves real money on the table.…
Early-Retirement Health Insurance: The Real Cost
Before Medicare, your income decides your premium via ACA subsidies. Here's how we keep ours afforda…
Market Risk
What If the Market Crashes the Year You Retire?
Two retirees with identical plans can end up worlds apart based only on when the bad years hit.…
Glide Path vs. Bond Tent: Which Protects You?
How you shift your allocation around retirement day changes how a crash hits you. We compared approa…
Same Plan, Opposite Outcomes: Sequence Risk
Retiring into 1966 vs. 1982 produced wildly different results on identical assumptions. Why timing r…
How Much Cash Should You Hold in Retirement?
A cash buffer lets you avoid selling into a downturn — but too much is a drag. Finding the right siz…
Your Plan Survived 1,000 Futures. Did It Survive the Worst 50?
Average success hides the tail. We stress-test against the ugliest outcomes, not just the median.…
Inside RetireOdds
What Did Your Money Actually Earn? Now Every Broker, One Answer
RetireOdds now computes time-weighted and money-weighted returns across all your accounts from the m…
Does Your Retirement Plan Actually Cover Both of You?
The new Household Continuity summary shows exactly who your plan models, what happens to spending af…
Take Your Whole Plan to Claude in One File
Export your entire plan — assets, liabilities, spending, and every recommendation — as one Markdown …
The Ledger: Every Year of Your Retirement, One Row at a Time
RetireOdds now lays out your whole plan year by year in one table, driven by the same engine that co…
The Situation Map: Your Money as a Picture, Not a Table
RetireOdds now draws your household finances as a connected node graph, so structure and gaps show u…
Year-End Moves: December's Decisions, Decided Together
RetireOdds now prices your December tax moves together, because a Roth conversion and a gain harvest…
The Monthly Close: A Fifteen-Minute Ritual That Keeps the Plan Honest
RetireOdds now runs a monthly close, borrowed from how businesses close their books, to catch stale …
Test the Sale Before You Make It
RetireOdds now reads your tax lots and prices a trade against brackets, ACA, and IRMAA before you ma…
Why This Result?" — The Evidence Behind Your Number
A new panel shows the deterministic evidence behind your success number — what moves it, whether the…
Household Modeling: Two Lives, One Plan (Beta)
New opt-in household modeling runs two incomes, two Social Security claims, and a survivor scenario …
Roth Optimizer v2: Conversion Schedules Priced Honestly
The Roth Optimizer now prices IRMAA's two-year lag and ACA subsidy loss into every conversion schedu…
The Plan Audit Pack: Every Assumption, On the Record
RetireOdds now lists every assumption your plan actually runs on, tagged as yours, auto-derived, or …
The Free Calculator, Rebuilt — and the 4% Rule Backtested Against Every Year Since 1928
The no-signup calculator now runs a full Monte Carlo in your browser, and a companion tool backtests…
The Tax Engine Got Serious (So the Odds Could Get Honest)
RetireOdds now taxes each withdrawal by what it actually is, prices ACA and IRMAA inside every simul…
Say It or Scan It: Expenses That Enter Themselves (iOS)
The iOS app now logs expenses from voice or a receipt photo, because capture friction is why spendin…
The Rest of the Balance Sheet: Illiquid Assets and Deferred Comp
Rental property, private funds, and deferred comp now have first-class homes in RetireOdds, tracked …
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